When not controlling for these variables, our treatment effect-that is, the effect of scoring just before half time on full time outcomes-could just reflect a general (dis)advantage of being the team which scores the last goal of the first half given the score at half time. Finally, to test the alternative soccer myth that just after the break is a particularly good moment to score a goal, we also constructed indicators for scoring a first goal in the second half during the first five minutes of this second half as a home team or as an away team. As a consequence, we compare the effect of scoring a last goal (that is, without the other team scoring a later goal during the first half) just before half time on full time outcomes with the effect of scoring a goal at a different moment during the first half. As a consequence, when these control variables are included, we compare the effect of scoring a (last) goal just before half time on full time outcomes with the effect of scoring a last goal of the first half at a different moment during this first half. With respect to the investigation of the alternative soccer myth, we condition on the mentioned intermediate outcomes (goal difference, number of goals of the home team, a last goal in the first half by the home team, a last goal in the first half by the away team, a red card for the home team and a red card for the away team) at the start of minute 51-that is, immediately after the first five minutes of the second half.
Finally, two variables indicating whether the home and away team received a red card during the first half are included. In addition, from more extended versions of our regression model onwards, we control for indicators of scoring a last goal at any time during the first half by the home or away team. So, the broader definitions yield more variation in the treatment indicator (and ipso facto more statistical power for our analyses) at the cost of being farther away from what is, intuitively, “just before half time” in the strict sense. If you skip this period, the accommodation facility will take a fine – usually in the amount of the cost of a daily room rental. However, in Section 3.2, we will compare the effect of scoring a goal just before half time following this definition on full time outcomes, keeping other game characteristics constant, with the corresponding effect of scoring a goal just before half time following alternative definitions.
To be able to control for the relative strength of the home and away teams (and to investigate heterogeneous effects of scoring just before half time by relative team strength), we merged the presented game information with information on the relative UEFA team coefficient of both teams. More concretely, for our alternative definitions, “just before half time” begins at the start of minute 44, 43, 42 or 41, instead of at the start of minute 45. If both the home and away team score during this time window (which occurs in five-0.4%-of the games in our sample for the broadest definition of “just before half time”), only the team that scores the last goal gets a 1-value for the indicator of scoring just before half time. “dying seconds” of a game as the time between the start of minute 45 of the second half and full time. Later in the film Kroos’ long time midfield partner Luka Modric says: ‘He sees everything in slow motion.’ And echoing Modric’ sentiment former Bayern coach Jupp Heynckes says: ‘The very best players are mentally strong.
A bitter, public spat with Bayern Munich ensued when their trio Thomas Muller, Jerome Boateng and Mats Hummels (now back at Borussia Dortmund) were indefinitely exiled. The Argentine has previously claimed that his switch to Inter Miami has helped him ‘get his love for the game back’ after an illustrative career at Real Madrid, Lazio, Chelsea and Juventus. Moreover, we include a variable indicating whether the game is a game in the UEFA Europa League and a variable indicating whether the game is a game in the group phase of one of the two competitions. The UEFA coefficient of a team is based on its participation and results in the five previous seasons of the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League. The summary statistics for our alternative dependent variables go in the same direction: the probability of victory (45.7% versus 29.3%), the final number of goals (1.527 versus 1.141) and the probability of being the first team to score a goal in the second half (0.455 versus 0.330) are higher for the home team. This is done by controlling for the goal difference at half time and the number of goals scored by the home team at that moment.
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